Hi, UF
I've been thinking how truly capricious and vengeful this market is. Just when we think we have it figured out, it turns, whether up or down. Perhaps we really are having a drunkard's walk down Wall Street. This market will work to invalidate any strategy that one comes up with -- with one exception: LTB&H -- emphasis on L. You have been right all along with that strategy, and with looking for solid companies with good long-term prospects. Some have worked very well, some have not, but it is still early in the game. Not many of us have the time to wait them out, however, and that is where we fall short. I recall your statement earlier this year about whether G&Ks could ever have the type of year they had in 99. I never would have thought that they would be hammered as much as they have, but six months is a short time on which to measure the market.
V's angelic call on RMBS is capriciously delightful. Of all the circuitous and tortured analyses I have read on SI, on other boards, and on professional newsletters, trying to justify p/e's north of the hundreds, none are as brilliant as he who says "my angels told me to buy." I don't believe any analyst can justify such sky-high p/e's without relying on an edifice of assumptions built on silicon, as in the sandy kind, not the semiconductor type. But to make such claims based on gut feelings, on a sense of momentum, or on "angels" is one of the most honest predictions one can make in this market. Perhaps, as you say, V really is a humble but good analyst who uses angels as his cover. If so, more power to him, though I suspect it is not that, but that he is very good at momentum plays -- which is even harder than being a good fundamentalist or a good TA analyst. Dell, AOL, QCOM, were these lucky finds, easy picks in a bull market, or a sign of someone who has an uncanny mark for the market? I don't know, but I took a small position in RMBS today, though hedged by puts -- even angels have to show me a five-year track record before I am willing to turn my account over :-) |
