buck--
I realize this may touch a sore spot, but in the tradition of Apollo's brilliant self-flagellations, I wonder if I could get you to comment on the following.
The other day, in a fit of masochism and schadenfreude, I came up with the following chart:
siliconinvestor.com
All four of the companies listed have done terribly over the last several months, but for different reasons and with different implications. All had run up during the winter/spring bubble and came down a bit thanks to simple gravity, but their stories part after that.
CTXS ran into real business problems and covered them up; when the problems came out, the stock dropped precipitously. I sold it after the truth emerged, and came away with the lesson that even very smart and knowledgeable investors (not me, but rather people like Merlin and Luke) can get blindsided now and then--and with an appreciation for the importance of tornados.
ITXC has continued to do a great job running its business, but has been hurt by selling from some institutional investors and by Mr. Market's current attitude towards still-unprofitable-pebbles-with-future-stories-and-high-valuations. Although I am disappointed, and have seen some calls go basically to zero, I remain confident in the management (friends) and the company, am holding on to my common shares for the long term. (In fact, I even picked up a few Jan ATM calls today.)
QCOM, everyone knows. Again, I'm hanging tight, and believe (pray) that all will be well in the long run.
CRDS, the last of the four, is the one I haven't owned and am least familiar with. I know there has been an earnings disaster, some insider shenanigans, and a shareholder lawsuit; it sounds to me like CTXS only worse. Remembering your presentation of it back in February (the post to which this is a reply), I would be interested in hearing what you think went wrong. Also, in retrospect, were the problems at all predictable? What, in other words, have you learned from this debacle, and what should the takeaway be for the rest of us?
thanks in advance,
tekboy/Ares@asmeatloaf'sbrokersaid,threeoutoffourain'tbad.com |
