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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: tekboy who wrote (29167)8/1/2000 10:54:18 AM
From: buck  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I realize this may touch a sore spot

Ouch. It's definitely a sore spot. More like a 6-month old sucking chest wound.

in a fit of masochism

Since you didn't buy any, it seems a touch more sadistic at this end... <g>

CRDS, the last of the four, is the one I haven't owned and am least familiar with. I know there has been an earnings disaster, some insider shenanigans, and a shareholder lawsuit; it sounds to me like CTXS only worse.

You got that right!

Remembering your presentation of it back in February (the post to which this is a reply), I would be interested in hearing what you think went wrong.

Gosh, I wish I could say. I've been utterly shocked at their latest fall, from the 40s to practically the pink sheets. Of course, the earnings warning that came out a week ago explains a lot. Missing estimates by two-thirds tends to cause some, um, loss of confidence. A stop-ship on the product clearly slows sales. Losing one of your biggest customers ain't too good, either.

From a technology standpoint, I am shrugging my shoulders. The product that they are selling should be a no-brainer out in the market. There are some things happening in that market, though, that are possibly putting the brakes on. First is the Brocade/Cisco partnership, that will combine BRCD Fibre Channel switch capability into Cisco's product line. Second is the Cisco acquisition of a company called NuSpeed, who is working on an Storage over IP product. Knowing the power of gorillas, I can just see buyers across the country saying "Whoa! Now that Cisco's getting in the game, let's see what they do before we commit to anything."

Can you guess I'm sitting here scratching my head over what went wrong?

Also, in retrospect, were the problems at all predictable?

Not by me...

What, in other words, have you learned from this debacle, and what should the takeaway be for the rest of us?

I've learned never, ever, ever to post anything of substance here as regards a company. Your research skills are just too damn good, and too damn embarassing. <g>

I've learned I'm much better off just reading the wisdom of the Microphone Buckleys and the UFs and the Tekboys and the Apollos of this world, and occasionally posting about a technology that I may have some clue about.

Your lesson, and it's one you know, is don't listen to a newbie who just finished the book for the first time and is all hopped up about the Game, and is eagerly searching for Shiny Pebbles that could be a gorilla, and runs into camp yelling about his new find.

in the tradition of Apollo's brilliant self-flagellations

Mine certainly isn't brilliant, but it's about as self-flagellant as I can get. Now, quit picking on me. Sheesh...one over-eager post and you have to drag it out in front of the whole world. <G>

buck, still looking at tractors
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