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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Joe Smith who wrote (30949)	8/1/2000 10:56:34 AM
From: Silver_Bullet	Read Replies (1) of 57584

I agree that the probable conclusion is fibers to each home. But, I ask you this. How long will it be before fiber is to even a small percentage of homes in major metropolitan areas? They are just now laying the trunk lines of fibers and it is taking many years. You have to build a foundation before you can build the 300th floor and the last mile is the 300th floor. The home will be the last thing to be fibered. I easily see fiber into the homes taking 10 or more years to really get started. I see the infrastructure taking 3 to 5 more years(connecting of cities and countries) and then each city has to put fiber lines in the streets so there is something for each home to connect to. After that you can begin to think of connecting the individual homes. The fiber will slowly start making it into each persons home because of expense and logistics. Who's going to pay for this upgrade anyway? Is the homeowner going to be charged? I think not. There are many people still just discovering the net believe it or not, and they sure aren't going to pay for something they don't understand or use. The number of people not connected will decrease over time of course, but you are still talking hundreds of millions of people in the US alone. The amount of people not connected will change exponentially when Broadband is really available for everyone and easy to get up and running so the more available DSL or equivalent BroadBand the more will want to connect and use the net. I see DSL being the major staple of "last mile" technology for the next 10 to 15 years minimum. We haven't even discussed the possibility that the DSL technology achieving download speeds of 5Mbs that would possibly make it unnecessary to even think of fibers going into the home for the next 20 to 25 years or longer. Just my take and my reason for still staying very bullish on DSL. FT.

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