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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon

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To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (567)	8/1/2000 11:34:37 AM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (3) of 811

[Cramer article "After the Gold Rush"] <<Interesting and I do hope that EXLN is not included in this message however it is an interesting message.>> Yes, I also downloaded this article but I didn't think it would be worth posting. Some refutations: <<Remember those great earnings for all of those Web infrastructure companies?>> Which great earnings does he remember? The IPO candidates never had any, only the stock prices skyrocketed. A factor driving them was probably the size of the B2B transaction market projected by Forrester et al., in the trillion dollar range - many gamblers neglected the difference between the volume of the goods traded and the commission earned by the exchange providers. <<We're now discovering the truth, which is that many of these companies were still living largely off the big March-April venture capital spending boom.>> EXLN wasn't lucky enough to IPO in that window. <<These companies that provide the picks and shovels for the Net don't have a lot of new diggers coming in.>> Really? It's rather that some stock gamblers have experienced margin calls. <<And the collapse of the Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) model means there won't be much of a rush for more infrastructure anytime soon.>> Just because B2C is slowing doesn't mean that B2B will fail. In fact, B2B is in its infancy. Millions of companies worldwide don't transact through the Internet yet. <<But that build-out will conclude itself too.>> Yes, just like the PC market was satiated throughout the 90ies. Dell had a hard time making any money in that decade. <<It won't provide enough new business for all of these players.>> Just because TheStreet.com is doomed doesn't mean that everybody else is. <<But the risk is that in the next month you come up with a shortfall in earnings.>> EXLN has just beaten the Q2 estimates. And to Damien (#566): <<I think Bob Trocchi pointed out that EXLN's profitless growth at about 25% per year didn't stack up well against WEBM's profitless growth at 300% a year.>> EXLN's sequential 54% B2B growth with a net margin of -6% stacks up very well against WEBM's 50% growth with a -42% net margin. >But if you are profitless and growing at 25% then all you have is hope. EXLN is close to profitability and has a 3021% YOY growth in its B2B product line. >>My fair value target is 30 x $0.46 or $14 by spring 2001 > >As you might expect, I think that is an optimistic estimate. I am not the biggest optimist here. Another person on this thread initially proposed a $2 EPS estimate for 2002. My numbers are close to Gerard Klauer Mattison. >I would like to see this company succeed. Good to hear. To both EXLN and your developer business: live long and prosper.

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