Re: The broadband flood is leaving the residential user high and dry. Internettelephony Magazine
Hi ww,
While your paper shuffling continues, I have something germane to the topic of broadband to the home. This may have been previously displayed here so forgive my repetition if this is the case.
The article:
internettelephony.com
The graphs:
internettelephony.com
My two cents:
I am really struck by the graph on "broadband adoption plans" as provided by Jupiter Communications. What jarred me is that 73% of the US Internet population has "No plans to switch to broadband". This is a huge surprise to me, and makes me realize how in the minority we are here in this small "early-adaptor" den called the SI Last Mile thread. Most of Joe Sixpack America couldn't care less about the very things that we regard as so desirable.
Now in the article itself, I found the first instance ever where I've come to disagree with Milo Medin, CTO of @Home.
He has gone over to the camp that AOL has so successfully pioneered. In his own words:
"One reason why AOL has demolished everybody in the dial-up Internet business was
because they integrated content with access. "That's really important,
especially for penetrating beyond the early adopters. The people with five levels of
bookmarks don't need navigation help. But when my mom gets hooked up to the
Internet, if she doesn't have content integrated to that access, it's not immediately
useful to her."
"It's not just about content," Medin says. "With Java applets and automatic updating of
client software, the difference between content and software is really blurring. You
have to make the service really easy to use, and that means building a simpler client
to give your mainline users a very simple experience, and you're not going to be able
to do that just by shipping Internet Explorer or Netscape."
"If you're happy with 2% to 3% market penetration and you don't care about
challenging AOL, then this (simpler client) is pretty irrelevant to you," Medin says. "You'll pick up the
power users. But cable operators that think that way are going to find their economics
are not profitable."
So the gist of Medin's argument, and he's someone who must make a go of this business, is that most of the potential market for broadband connectivity is simply not prepared to pay the dues that all of us here have found to be a necessary step to entering "networked heaven". This is a sobering thought for those, like me, who had envisioned huge budgets from service providers beefing up networking equipment to satisfy an insatiable demand. Maybe that demand isn't going to be quite as overwelming as I had imagined it to be.... maybe the early adopters are all already on the train.
A note to Jim Kayne, your response to this same discussion is very much in keeping with Medin and Steve Case's view of things. Content and connectivity will blend for the majority of Internet users. Of this I'm quite certain. I just happen to be a tad bit disappointed in a general public that is so willing to be spoon fed their reality by their superiors.
Just some randomness creeping in, Ray |
