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Technology Stocks : EXLN - Excelon

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To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (570)8/1/2000 3:51:30 PM
From: Elsewhere  Read Replies (1) of 811
 
[Business We{e|a}k on B2B companies]

While the article might give a good impression of the mood driving the trading crowds there are two nuggets which I would like to comment:

Robertson Stephens analyst Eric Upin believes Ariba has the potential to be a $2 billion- or $3 billion-a-year company with 30% operating margins in just a few years.

ARBA better reach that size. Does Upin mean net margins? Ok, let's assume $1 bn net profit. ARBA currently has a market cap of $26 bn - so in a few years the company might reach an acceptable valuation with a PE of 26. EXLN has a PE 02e of 13, now that's acceptable.

[Michael Dubrow, analyst at Jacob Asset Management]
Dubrow owns Commerce One, which compared to Ariba, "is a bigger bet that the exchange is going to work and add value." But it also is a cheaper stock, he adds.

Cheaper, but cheap? A price/sales ratio of about 30 for a company losing $43 million on sales of $63 million in the past quarter? For some time I lost the belief that the exuberant times would ever end but what happened to the NASDAQ since March clearly shows that sooner or later Mr. Market demands a reasonable return on equity. The Commerce One chicken will come home to roost one day, too.
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