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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.835-1.1%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Kent Rattey who wrote (6766)8/1/2000 6:03:48 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (4) of 34857
 
Kent - the surprise here is how well Japan Telecom is doing. If EZWEb topped 3 million subs by the end of July, that could have been reached by less than 15% month-on-month sub growth. Which is way below the mobile internet growth of J-Phone. Few people believed this would happen.

The point of DDI/IDO fragmentation is good - but it only underlines the fact that predicting subscriber growth based on standard decisions does not work. Other factors are far more important. EZWeb was launched in April 1999, and I definitely don't think that hitting 3 million subs 14 months later is a major achievement. That does not really make a dent in DoCoMo's grip of the market. Which was the specific goal of DDI. If DDI can't dent DoCoMo and is now having Japan Telecom closing in on it - this is not exactly a triumph, is it?

Besides - EZWeb is a WAP service. The same people arguing here that WAP will not succeed are also arguing that DDI should steamroll the Japanese market. That's a pretty uncomfortable position.

Arun - that's a great argument. But it also raises the question of how wise it is to run two digital networks simultaneously. If you only offer web access through one network, you can always claim that this segment has a great subscriber uptake. But that also leaves you saddled with a PDC network that is rapidly losing high-end subs to PDC operators that do offer mobile internet. The combined performance of both networks has to be the real benchmark here. It's the overall market share that counts in the real world - shuffling subs between two operations is a zero sum game. It does not help against rival operators.

Tero
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