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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (7854)	8/1/2000 9:37:18 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) of 436258

Hilites of Hays interview for me: * Calling 1974 bottom * "Options traders never die, they just expire worthless." * Emphasis on equity p/c. Uses 3wk over 39wk crossovers. Signal at 12% above and 8% below. No strong signal right now. Crossover this spring reinforced his idea that we had put in a low. * Bottoms "very, very easy to call". Tops are tough. * The printing press will kill us. The money supply is the primary problem we face now. We are addicted. * Sees baby-booomers as the buyers, but thinks golden-agers are net sellers and have been for 5 years or so. They are the ones with the disposable income. He admits this is hard to prove. * Peak in stocks above 200 dma was late 1997. Da bear! * Love the Quit Ratio. When you see a large number of people voluntarily quitting jobs there has always been a recession 1 to 2 years out. * Was calling for July/Aug to be a period of extreme danger. He thinks we are headed down. This is not a perma-bear sort of guy either. * 1990 market has a lot of similarities to 2000. * Deflation is the worry, not inflation. * The NASDAQ should (has to) go down another 25% or more. Should happen soon. Might get one more little peak. * Brokers and companies are doin' each other. * Most important/reliable money-supply indicator is MZM for 12 months out. * Notion of "soft landing" makes him laugh. Really, he laughed. * Cracking of Euro will signal the beginning of the end. * Worries about a Japanese crisis given their chart. * Greenspan is not very bright, but he is a master manipulator who will do everything to keep this market up. *** Don is an SI user and his handle is heinz blasnik. vbg . I think I might drop the $120 and give him a go. Anybody else subscribe? --Allan

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