There's been no discontinuous innovation, but there's a proven substitution threat, and I'm typing from it. AMD has taken a significant portion of the retail market, by the way. Some Dataquest or IDC numbers would reflect this. Maybe the DSP, flash, and networking chip markets aren't Intel's core competencies, but they need something to drive their growth in the future. Otherwise Intel can't really justify a multiple much higher than that of a Pfizer or a Micron.
All of this just goes to prove my point: judge Intel by its investment potential, which to me, appears very suspect right now given how its growth's slowing down, and how they have second-rate products in a lot of the secondary markets they're looking for to fuel their growth. If using the GG as a framework helps you analyze Intel, then that's all for the better. But you can't expect it to give a nice, clear answer each time. Don't take this the wrong way, but it's best to think for yourself on this issue, and not blindly follow what the GG classification of Intel would be. I'm sure that Moore would appreciate it just as much as I would.
Once again, with all due respect,
Eric |
