I believe the Nasdaq, SP500, SOX, and DOT indexes are way oversold right now. I don't even listen to the daily business news much anymore because they are always attempting to find specific explanations for normal fluctuations and volatility.
My thesis is very simple. We got way extended over the 200 day moving averages during the early part of this year. The Nasdaq crashed down in anticipation of the interest rate hikes (this year, last year it was Long Term Capital Managment, the year before it was because of Hong Kong and the Far East, etc.). Now we're consolidating around the 200 DMA and the rate hikes are nearly over (maybe one .25 left, but I doubt it). I think dollar cost averaging anywhere below the 200 day moving averages will yield what will turn out to be great bargains by this time next year.
I've always considered bonds to be smarter money than equities. And if the economy is so bad, if interest rates are so bad, why are bonds stable and even rallying?
I'd say investments in leadership companies in wireless, optical networking, and some software companies will yield outsized gains from these levels if you have at least a one year horizon.
Thanks for this forum to rant, good luck to all! |
