If 50 KBPS is available on the move, everybody is going to go directly to their favorite content on the internet.
To an extent, I suppose so, but laptops aren't a whole lot of fun to carry around. Business users would definitely be major buyers of such a service, though, as they're less cost sensitive than regular consumers, and are more willing to pay by the minute. There's been a lot of talk about Metricom having a decent laptop modem that offers over 300 kbps on average for an $80/month flat fee (don't quote me on those numbers). But it's only going to be available in a limited number of US cities.
And if 144 kbps is a real possiblity, then many will sacrifice a home line to use the internet in their backyard or anywhere.
Cost will definitely be a major issue here. It's one thing to charge relatively low access fees when all you're downloading is a few lines of text and maybe some small, grainy images, but the bytes really start adding up once you surf a few graphics-intensive web pages. Just think what would happen if a carrier offered flat-rate wireless internet access, and a number of their subscribers got hooked onto Napster. It could make the AOL/flat-rate debacle of early '97 look pale in comparision.
It'll still most likely be a little while before wireless internet access becomes a competitive, "one size fits all" last-mile solution. There just isn't enough capacity to keep costs as low as most wire-line internet users will want them. As wireless technologies get more spectrally efficient, the argument should get more and more compelling. Maybe such a solution will hit critical massn once all of those new bands are opened up, leaving many carriers with a potential capcity glut. 2004 seems like a good time frame for me. Still too early to tell though.
Eric |
