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>>> Technical Analysis: Dow Jones industrials, S&P 500 Futures
Aug. 2-MAR--
[B] Technical Analysis: Dow Jones industrials, S&P 500 Futures
By Kevin Pendley, BridgeNews
Chicago--Aug. 2--The Dow and S&P 500 futures continue to tread water within a triangle formation formed earlier this year. S&P futures are oversold and show some minor bottoming signs on daily charts, but the dominant trend on weekly charts is neutral to slightly bearish. It will take a definitive move out of the triangle patterns to set the next major trend in motion.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 2 AUGUST 2000 (US&DJI)
12253 -- minor trendline resistance from May, July and August tops
(rising at 19 bps/week)
11750 -- Jan. 14 high; record intraday high
11722 -- Jan. 14 close; record high close
11425 -- April 12 high; approximate double top on weekly charts
11365 -- previous record high from August 1999
11200 -- intraday/closing resistance line
11141 -- approximate double top on daily charts
11000 -- trendline resistance from January highs (descends at 24
bps/week);
support/resistance swing line
10766 -- 200-day moving average
10692 -- second pivot point resistance drawn from Tuesday's action
10680 -- 100-day moving average
10665 -- 20-day moving average
10649 -- first pivot point resistance drawn from Tuesday's action
-10626 -- Tuesday's high
10610 -- 40-day moving average
>10606 -- Tuesday's close
10539 -- first pivot point support drawn from Tuesday's action
-10516 -- Tuesday's low
10480 -- trendline support from the March lows (rising at 39 bps/week)
10472 -- second pivot point support drawn from Tuesday's action
10274 -- trendline support from October 1998 low (rising at 30 bps/week)
10206 -- 100-week moving average
10201 -- April 14 low; approximate double bottom on weekly charts
10000 -- key psychological benchmark; double bottom on October weekly
charts
9731 -- March 8 low; lowest point since March 25, 1999, and key support
line on weekly charts
9583 -- 50% retracement of October 1998-January 2000 rally
9400 -- 20% decline from record high
NOTES: The Dow has been consolidating in a sideways fashion between 10650 and 10460 for the past few days, working off oversold conditions while holding just above key trendline support from the March lows.
The Dow is still treading water in a converging triangle pattern on weekly charts that is defined by the January highs and the March lows. A definitive breakout in either direction from that formation should set the tone for
weeks to come, but the market has been reticent to attach to any trends.
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IMM SEP S&P 500 FUTURES 2 AUGUST 2000 (US@SP0U)
1662.00 -- upside target based on June 2 triangle breakout
1595.00 -- contract high set March 24
1533.00 -- July 17 high; highest point since April 12
1500.00 -- support/resistance swing line
1499.71 -- internal trendline from the April 14, May 10 lows;
now resistance
1485.68 -- 20-day moving average
1484.83 -- 40-day moving average
1482.12 -- 100-day moving average
1464.93 -- 200-day moving average
1463.80 -- second pivot point resistance drawn from Tuesday's action
1455.70 -- first pivot point resistance drawn from Tuesday's action
-1454.50 -- Tuesday's high
>1447.50 -- Tuesday's close
1446.30 -- pivot point drawn from Tuesday's action
1438.20 -- first pivot point support drawn from Tuesday's action
1438.09 -- 200-day moving average on continuous charts
-1437.00 -- Tuesday's low
1435.50 -- 10% correction from the contract high
1431.84 -- trendline support on Sep charts drawn from October 1998 lows
(rising at 466 bps/week)
1428.80 -- second pivot point support drawn from Tuesday's action
1413.20 -- major trendline support drawn from October 1998 lows on
continuous charts (rising at 510 bps/week)
1276.00 -- 20% correction from contract high
NOTES: Sep S&P 500 futures Tuesday closed higher and above opening levels for the second consecutive session--the first time that has happened since mid-July.
Further gains are still needed to confirm a bullish cross in slow stochastics on daily charts, but the market is oversold and vulnerable to corrective advances.
Overall, the market has been treading water in a sideways, consolidation fashion since April. In fact, the entire range for the summer was set between late March and mid-April and the market hasn't broken free of those range parameters yet.
After the market rejected an apparent upside breakout two weeks ago, it was a natural fit that Sep would test support from the October and April trendline lows, but so far there is no dominant intermediate directional bias .<<< |
