Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 242.41

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3:59 PM EST

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (36213)	8/2/2000 9:03:16 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Scott and thread, KLIC is back end. A normal up leg to a cycle sees a spurt in the back end as more wafers are processed and more chips need to be tested, assembled and packaged. This spurt, and especially its end, is normally a sign that available fab capacity has been used up. The next step is to add more front end capacity. As the demand growth is still the strongest that we've ever seen, there's good reason for Scott Kulicke to believe that he's going to be going full steam within another couple quarters. So far I've seen many announcements like the Nortel intent to double its chip capacity within the next 18 months. Come to think of it, I can't think of a sector or even a single company that has announced it has enough capacity, and has no intent to add any more. If I remember the chart in Sue Billat's presentation correctly, the communications sector is already larger than the PC sector and growing much more rapidly than the PC sector did. All that said, I would expect some solid buying opportunities in the short term until the analysts realize that Front End growth is continuing unabated. FWIW, Ian.

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