Gottfried - there's no disagreement with your points.
I am unquestionably in a minority opinion regarding my outlook. However let's get one concept clear: the contested point was the 'objective' reality of slowing year-to-year EPS growth. I don't see it; others do. The risk of cancellation is ALWAYS there. That's not the issue. The discussion involved DEMAND-DRIVEN EPS growth, not acts of god, governments, currencies, or whatever.
The press release reiterated my position forcefully: the demand is not only there, but it appears to have increased so as to have far outstripped space and supplies.
I've no idea where the stock will be in two days, two weeks, two months...you've always had a lot more confidence in charts than myself. From my perspective, the delay will have its greatest impact on perceptions; when it becomes 'obvious' the company continues to have a single digit PE based on estimated FY2001 earnings, a different 'reality' will take hold.
But the real kicker may this: the effect of these few deferrals may be less than trivial...perhaps $0.10 per quarter. In fact, other customers could take orders sooner than planned thus making the entire event 'silent' on the bottom line. In short, reread the news release and consider the extremely few bonders we're dealing with. Could this be, in the end, a non-event?
Best wishes,
Brilliant Investor. |
