I don't know, guys. I'm just here to offer an opposing viewpoint for your thoughts. That's the purpose of this forum, right?
Be careful about this. Think about it. If demand is so great, customers would be begging KLIC to speed up delivery ASAP - NOT the other way around. Deferring orders is NOT something that happens during the growth phase of a cycle. It's a polite way of saying, "We're probably going to cancel this order, but we'll try and soften the blow by deferring it for now."
I'm heavily involved in fiber optic stocks, as you know. Believe me, no one is deferring or canceling orders there. Backlog is 6-12 months, and customers are begging suppliers to speed up delivery as soon as possible along the entire supply chain. There are plenty of shortages all along the supply chain, but you never see any deferral of orders. That's what you should be seeing with KLIC
Also, look at some of SK's other words:
1) "this [cycle] has already lasted longer than most upturns. So, we are essentially in uncharted territory."
I have said the same thing numerous times on this thread. The current uptrend is no spring chicken. It's very long in the tooth.
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2) "K&S will continue to report financial results at near record levels."
The word "near" says it all. That word was chosen and inserted very carefully.
Finally, I wish someone would have asked SK that if he thinks the peak will happen in 2002 or later, why did he and his entire executive staff sell 50%-100% of their holdings in early 2000. In other words, why didn't he put his money where his mouth is?
Finally, if all those insiders sold their KLIC, why are you guys still hanging on and buying more? Be careful, Scott, margin is a dangerous thing.
Again, I have backpedaled a bit, and have no strong opinion about when the cycle will end. It could very well continue for quite some time. The data presented by Scott W., Bonderbill, and others is very compelling that the cycle has more to run.
But I think the risk is getting higher and higher as more and more yellow and red flags pop up. The analysts, as I have said over and over again, will be of absolutely no help. Investing is all about controlling risk.
The picture should sharpen a bit more in the coming months. It will be fascinating to watch unfold, one way or the other. |
