gancho, Berg and Shugart in their prior corporate life used the "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" quite successfully. I am not criticizing this approach, I just point out that it has greater risks to corporate survival if they do not succeed. Since I have no inside information or a crystal ball to tell me if they will succeed or not, I, of course, look at the technical action of the stock to try and guess if they are on course to succeed. That, tied with my general view of the market dictates my then current position. Right now, very bearish.
The history of my position in the holy one is full of reversals, mostly because the stock's action was full of reversals. These reversals kept my few losses to minimum and allowed me to participate in the majority of the upside the stock had. That follows an old market say :Lcut your losses short and let your profits run".
That is not a unique approach to VLNC, just recently, I had similar reversals in QLTI, I cut my losses at $60, got back around $50 and sold above $71, then got back in at $68, and in view of the market, I may be out today of QLTI as well in the hope of reentering once more at a lower price.
I really do not know if Berg and Shuggart will repeat through Lev their prior successes. I should tell you that hisorically, such repeats are rare, and can point to few examples where such "second comings" did not occur, for instance, Rolwagen killed PMAT, Amdhal killed both Amdhal computers and Trilogy (only very wealthy people lost $200 MM on Trilogy, since it never came public before it failed), and there are many more examples. Come to think of it, I do not recall many examples where the opposite occurred.
Zeev |
