WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 174.98

+5.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jason W who wrote (13535)	8/3/2000 10:07:16 AM
From: Michael Kim	Read Replies (2) of 60323

Jason, you have raised many of the same questions that I have myself. Aus, hopefully you will have time to address these from Jason's post: Message 14154800 The most general take that I have is the market understands (or understood) that flash is supply constrained. Good for prices, good for margins. But this can't go on too long because OEM manufacturers that depend on flash will continue to seek out lower cost data storage solutions (and if one came along TODAY you can bet that there would be a stampede into the new standard). You can hear their frustration when they have talked about the flash shortages. So the price of flash will have to start coming down to keep everyone on board. That's bad for flash producers because their margins will be affected - and this will become a top line game. I have heard several comments on the end of the flash shortage - if this is true, and supply is catching up with demand, again prices will fall - bad for flash. As I had mentioned in an earlier post, how much flash does one person need? Will I keep buying new cards? Or will I only add to my flash inventory when I get a new flash-enabled gadget? That is limiting also. That would imply that CF sales are very dependent on new digital camera, MP3, etc. sales. If sales of any of these items plateaus, you can expect that the market will interpret a slowdown in CF. And the worst thing that could happen is if CF is used to distribute music or video. Commercially recorded music, video or software will always be distributed on the lowest cost medium and that will mean that CF has been commoditized.

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