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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies
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To: Stocker who wrote (7443)8/3/2000 11:35:44 AM
From: SofaSpud  Read Replies (1) of 24939
 
Stocker / BKP

I'm no technician, but I think we're looking at a bottom where the first number is '7'.

They say you should underpromise and overdeliver. Whoever passed that aphorism on to Mike Rose unfortunately reversed it. Is the company cheap? You bet. I pray that it's just because they've mishandled estimates so badly. Why you would take your "best case" stuff to the street is beyond me. Particularly with the added scrutiny that California has attracted.

A poster on the KOB thread noted that there is nil in the BKP price right now for ELH -- despite the fact that they now have a producer. The back of the envelope numbers boggle -- they perfed what, 10% of the hydrocarbon column in BKP #1, and came up with 250 bcf/section. Over 20 sections, maybe. Certainly there are people watching the situation who seem to have been burned by Canadian gas wells in the past -- the ones that produce in spectacular fashion, and then one day just water out. What I've read about proved producing fields in California seems to be different from those Canadian formations -- you can have stable associated formation water production over the long term and still have highly economic hydrocarbon yield.

IMHO, you're right to think you can get a bounce. Buy under $8 and you should be able to sell north of $10 within two or three months. But it's also an awesome hold for those who can be patient for another year.
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