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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 239.16+2.1%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: H James Morris who wrote (106910)8/3/2000 1:59:12 PM
From: Danny  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
James, I am no touching semi sector for the following
reasons:

1:) The sector is clearly in a downtrend. And worst yet,
this is a slow bleeding downtrend. There are not so many
huge ups and downs, but a gradual price erosion. So,
the opportunity to get some thing cheap at the panic
moment is not there.

For example, I bought ACLS at 18 and thought it was cheap
but now it is at 15:(

2:) Semi group have run up huge time from its 1998 Oct
lows. If we indeed have seen the peak in the current
expansion, I am afraid there are more rooms to drop from
here even after some 40-50% haircut to date.

If anyone stayed in the semi group from 1997 to 1998, he/she
is unliekly to forget the magnitude of the damage this group
went through.

3:) I agree that it is too early to call the peak in
this group. But I would want to wait for a while and
at least get a confirmation that this group is picking up
the trend to the upside again before jumping in.

4:) Finally, I think people should play this sector slightly
different than others like B2B or Fiber Optics. Those
sectors are still in their infant stage and the potential
is tremendous. With much higher reward, I would not mind
taking up higher risk factors. But with Semis, this is
an established sector already. I would play with in
a more traditional way.
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