Thank you, Bob. I think that for short term traders, it shouldn't be hard too hard to make a few bucks trading the short rebounds, etc. Those that are nimble can probably do pretty well. I gave up short term trading years ago. Lot more money to be made picking great stocks and holding for years.
Long term for KLIC and the rest of the semi industry still looks pretty shaky. Again, it is almost irrelevant when the actual industry top will take place.
What really matters is when investors think the top is going to occur. And right now, more and more investors think the top is coming. Whether they are correct or not is immaterial - they think it's coming, so there are more sells than buys. News like order pushouts only reinforce that concept.
For KLIC and the other semis to have a nice, sustained, long term advance, investor sentiment has to turn positive again for the semis. They have to be convinced the top is far, far away on the horizon.
If you believe Scott W. and others that this is going to happen, you should follow him and buy more.
Personally, I suspect there is a good chance the top is near, and I would not be buying long term. There's a chance Scott and others are correct, but I think it's a high risk chance. The next low risk time to buy KLIC will be at the bottom of the cycle, which I am guessing is 1-2 years away. I only invest in low risk situations. Just my opinion.
Short term, you might make a few bucks here and there, but I don't short term trade and so don't have any recommendations short term. |
