ML:3-mo rolling avg billings for June up 48.1% YoY,Actual billings up 28.1% seq
8/3/00
Investment Highlights:
• The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that three-month
rolling average billings for the month of June increased by 48.1% YoY.
• The YoY increase represents the nineteenth consecutive month that comparisons
have been in positive territory after turning negative in March 1998.
• June billing growth was the strongest for Asia Pacific for the twelfth month
in a row – Asia Pacific grew 53% while chip revenue in Japan grew 51%.
The Americas were up by 43% YoY while the European region had sales
growth of 48% YoY.
• Actual June billings were $20.0 billion, up 58.6% YoY from June ‘99 billings.
• Sequentially, 3-month rolling average billings were up by 5.2%, which
compares favorably to the average June/May rate of sequential change for
1997-99, which declined at an average of 1.0%. Actual billings were up
28.1% sequentially.
• For all of 2000 we are currently forecasting an increase in semiconductor
billings of 32.3% YoY to $197 billion. Our 2001 billings forecast is 22.9%
YoY, to $242 billion.
SIA June 3-month rolling average billings up
48.1% YoY, and up 5.2% sequentially
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced
that three-month rolling average billings for the month of
June increased by 48.1% YoY to $20.0 billion. The YoY
increase represents the nineteenth consecutive month that
comparisons have been in positive territory after turning
negative in March 1998.
Sequential increase compares well with 1997-99 average
The three-month moving average billings in June were up
5.2% from June. The average for 1997-99 is down 1.0%,
to which the June 2000 result compares quite favorably.
Actual billing data shows 58.6% YoY growth
Although the three-month moving average comparisons
are the ones that receive the most attention, a look at the
actual billing data is instructive as well. Actual June
billings of $20.0 billion were up 58.6% YoY from the June
‘99 actual billing figure of $12.6 billion.
DRAM, flash billings lead growth
Growth in communications and information appliance end
markets continues to be the driving force behind the
semiconductor business. Actual analog semiconductor
billings growth for June was 46% YoY. Actual non-DRAM/
SRAM memory billings grew by 125% YoY,
fueled by a 2.7x YoY expansion in flash memory and
EEPROM billings. Actual DRAM billings were up 113%
YoY, as commodity prices picked up dramatically in the
month. Microprocessor growth improved from last month,
to 66% YoY.
Average selling prices moving upwards
We have speculated that as the semiconductor cycle
progresses and the impact of ongoing capacity tightness
become more noticeable, selling prices should begin to
rise. That is beginning to happen – overall industry ASP
was up by 21.4% YoY, the biggest such increase since the
end of 1995. We note that although ASP increases have
been the strongest in commodity memory, other segments
of the industry have shown selling price strength as well.
Asia Pacific and Japan strong, U.S. good, Europe
growth resumes
The notable sources of strength in the three-month rolling
average data were Asia Pacific and Japan, with Japan
growing 51% and Asia Pacific billings increasing by 53%
YoY. The Americas were up by 43% YoY, and European
billings continue to grow to 48% YoY.
We are forecasting 32.3% growth for 2000
For all of 2000 we are currently forecasting an increase in
semiconductor billings of 32.3% YoY to $197 billion and
our 2001 billings forecast is 22.9% YoY to $242 billion. |
