Remember, folks: industry tops are a gradual, rounded process.
The sweet part of the cycle is the rapidly accelerating growth phase. The Smart Money is not interested in the gradual, rounded, plateau phase.
Let's examine a few key excerpts from the ML report:
(1) "they had push outs from a single customer in the quarter and they had three or four other customers that were probably going to place slightly smaller orders next quarter."
Doesn't sound like the rapidly accelerating growth phase to me. Sounds more like the gradual, rounding, top, doesn't it?
(2) "As a result, Kulicke believes they will ship about 1600 bonders per quarter, which is the second highest amount in their history. "
The highest amount was last quarter. They are virtually admitting this current quarter is going to be lower.
Again, rapidly accelerating growth phase? Or rounding top?
Heck, it sounds like it's even theoretically possible the top already passed last quarter!!
SK predicted growth for the next few quarters when making year to year comparisons. How about sequential growth, which is the only thing current investors are interested in????
That's a critical difference. The industry can experience growth on year to year comparisons, while simultaneously slipping on a sequential basis.
I don't know. SK's comments have been somewhat reckless and immature. He's making the company vulnerable to a shareholder lawsuit. Giving a raspberry/bronx cheer to the analyst who predicted a market top? Very weird.
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KEY MISTAKE everyone is making:
Is current business strong at KLIC? YES!!! No need for everyone to keep on posting how good business is currently. It's supposed to be very good at the top - "record levels" - by definition.
Will things accelerate and rapidly grow higher from current superb conditions? That's the question that everyone needs to answer. And only if the answer is yes to this question, will investors come flocking back
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Brian: Thanks for the link to CBS Marketwatch! Kind of a neat thrill for me. |
