Joan, i'm confused now, i mean more than normally, which market are you talking about? the NAZ?
if that's the one you mean, it has no shortage of stocks that are at such crazy valuations that it makes really no difference if they get any crazier...i mean what's really the qualitative difference between a p/e of 500 and a p/e of 600?
i personally don't believe it can go to new highs in this move, as the mania has clearly decelerated in terms of volume...but don't forget, this market has a propensity for doing the impossible, crazy thing.
M3 has advanced by 29 billion dollars last week alone...the junk bond market has re-opened for business, everywhere signs that the liquidity/printing machine is back working at full speed. that is what counts for the stock market.
as mentioned before, one would expect the credit expansion to hit a natural limit at some point...but the very latest data show consumer confidence back at record highs, so i guess the blip in Q2 of lessening growth in consumer spending was just that - a blip.
there's still a cycle pointing to a low on August 25, which incidentally was the high in '87. but as expected, the Fed is fighting it...stocks are not allowed to go down, they are THE most important part of the economy.
technically today's NDX reversal was more than impressive...a text book bullish hammer, at the same time a bullish engulfing reversing right from the 62% retracement level of the previous up move from the May low...if it is validated by follow through, the cycle could possibly be inverted... |
