Bob, here's another cut at the numbers for you to consider:
1. The production was not at that rate for the entire quarter.
2. With shipments to Alliant for laminate and partially-completed cells, the amount of 'non-laminate' sales could still be the 'bulk' of the $2M rev, yet QCOM sales might only account for $1.2-1.5M of that.
3. Re: The quoted rate of 20 bi-cells/min from the 'David' (aka ye old Klockner): Remember we had heard '5 cells/min' for the 4-bicell-thick 4x4" laptop cells... this is consistent. Now we have 9-bicell-thick G* cells, which can only be produced at the rate of 2.2 cells/min, or 132 cells/hr, as you noted (the speed limitation of the pick'n'place mechanism, three generations old technology). I would use 20-23 hrs/day, so you get 2600 to 3000 cells/day. We don't know what fraction of the overall 'material yield factor' they report applies to partially completed cells at this point, let's just say it's 80%. So 2000 to 2400 'good' cells/day. Run your machines for 5-6 days/week (leave downtime for machine maintenance). That's 10-15k cells/week, or 120k to 180k cells/quarter.
4. BUT, a handset takes two cells. We don't know pricing, but it might have been less than $10/cell by 15-25% or so (it was the first deal). Worst case is $15/pair. So at this max production rate on the David you would only generate $900k worst case (120k/2 x $15), maybe twice that for best case (180k/2 x $20).
5. To match a slow ramp at the beginning of the quarter to the higher rate later, assume one month at one shift, another at two shifts, and the third at three shifts. So you cut your numbers down by 2/3 overall, so 'best case is then (2/3) of $1.8M, or $1.2M.
I think we're getting in the right ballpark.
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To your second question, where are these cells?
First, consider the 120k-180k range for cells, then the 2/3 factor... so we figured perhaps 120k cells produced. This is only 60k handsets' worth, not counting spares. I assume everyone buys one spare, so that's only enough handsets/spares for 30k users.
Also, the first month's production took another month to quarantine and ship on to Moltech, and then were passed on for final assembly into the handsets and distribution. The cells manufactured in April would have left Valence in May, and hit the distributors towards the end of June, give or take.
G* was having handsets returned due to flawed batteries from TDI, and these probably received Valence replacements.
The volume shipments from June production are probably just leaving Moltech now (remember the quarantine step before they leave Valence).
If Lev says he made and shipped that many, they're in the pipeline, and just coming out only these last few weeks.
Sometime before Labor Day we should hear reports of handsets circulating with 'Valence' inside... assuming the G* subscriptions improve.
Regards, Rich |
