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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.76-1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: Charles R who wrote (3592)8/4/2000 1:39:34 AM
From: PetzRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Chuck, I'll concede that the CPU business is not very cyclic, but, to the manufacturer with less than 1/3 the market, it is very cyclic.

Imagine if something like FDIV happened to AMD, even a year from now. There is also high technology risk for AMD. For example, we all know that if Pentium 4's turn out to yield to 2 GHz by the end of the year, AMD is totally screwed.

In short, the CPU business has always been extremely cyclic for AMD, because there is no room for error when competing with the 800 LB gorilla.

Finally, even a "growth recession" of less than 15% YOY growth could cause ASP's to tumble 30% and result in 15% YOY revenue declines.

So, I like the fact that CPU's are "only" 70% of AMD, and I would like it even better if they were 60%.

Petz
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