Aaaarrgghh!
So I watched CNBC market wrap up at 11PM PST. Don't they see all the contradictions they are making? First they say its the top of the semi cycle, dropping revenues, sky is falling. Then they explain revenue shortfalls are because of component shortages, high demand, blah blah. Then they say demand weakened. Then its a wafer shortage that hit K&S. Then Mot won't make as many cell phones which indicated drop in demand (of course Mot says they always had the same estimates). But then...... Look!!!! Either you have excess production, inventory build up, and prices drop, or you have shortages and increasing prices. I mean... back end drops because there is not enough front end. Front end stocks drop because we are at the top of the cycle. Why are we at the top of the cycle? Because front end companies made tons of money, flash is in very high demand (and cell phones aren't?) DRAM prices are expected to rise because of short supply, Foundries are running at 114%, Sony won't be able to make enough PS2 because of shortages, the internet is being built out rapidly, B2B and ecommerce are talking off, the global economy is growing.... This is a farce. Someone should write a play.
my 2c
HH |
