Albert,
re: "Positive Market Environment for High Speed PCs"
I agree, the past looks great for high end PC demand, and IMHO so does the near future. There is some risk that I (and you) are wrong, but we'll discount that.
AMD is adding 1.8 million processors, or 1.8 million Athlon PC's, into a finite retail unit sales marketplace, in the 3rd quarter. And an additional 3.6 million Athlon PC's in the 4th quarter. In order for AMD to sell all those processors, they will need to capture all of the seasonal retail increase in PC sales, in addition to taking existing retail market share from Intel.
-First, they might not get consumer design wins from the OEM's. Intel will compete for each and every processor.
-Second, the retailers may decide they want more Intel based PC's on their shelves.
-Third, the consumer may decide that an Intel based PC is better, and they won't get the sell through and reorders.
-Fourth, this is the year of Digital Cameras, MP3 players, Sony Playstation 2, handheld computers, lots of new products competing for the same consumer dollars. There is a very real risk that it will not be a strong retail PC season.
I've been selling products through retailers most of my career, and I guarantee there are no guarantees. It's a very bold prediction from Mr. Sanders, and bold predictions can be very dangerous.
We'll see,
John |
