Red Dragon,
Agree with the points you made about accelerating growth,
plateau phase, etc.
BUT...........
Due the the fact that the current "fears" are not typical
of the semi-cycle, i.e. bottlenecks in production rather
than excess capacity, wouldn't you expect that rather than
typical bottom of the cycle prices, we would find a higher low? Also, given that we are not looking ahead to
negative earnings, but rather still strong but admittedly
slower growing earnings, how cheap is too cheap?
At this point we have some semi-equip stocks with forward
P/E's of 7 to 9. Assuming this is a mid-cycle pause, and
not the beginning of the end of the up-cycle, wouldn't
you think these prices are cheap? |
