Market
optionstrategist.com
Despite the strong market action of the past two or three days, none of our indicators have given buy signals. For example, the equity-only put-call ratios (both "normal" and weighted) remain on sell signals, as do the both versions of the S&P 500 futures put-call ratio and the weighted $OEX ratio. Breaking the equity-only ratio down into its NYSE and NASD components doesn't show much of anything different. The NYSE ratio is perhaps showing the first signs of a buy signal, but the NASD ratio is still solidly on a sell signal. This seems logical, since the Dow has been doing quite a bit better than NASDAQ recently.
Meanwhile, our oscillator stands at +10 -- nearly neutral. Its most recent signal was a sell signal, but that was some time ago (July 18th). Technically, that sell signal remains in effect. Overall, the market has made NO progress from a week ago ($OEX is about unchanged, while $NDX is down). So it wouldn't surprise me to see that the market still has trouble making any real progress in either direction. Thursday's day-long reversal action HAS a positive feel, but it would be unusual to see a sustained move without buy signals from any of the sentiment indicators or the oscillator. One other thought does come to mind, though: a few months ago, it seemed that the market was able to stage a rally on the day BEFORE favorable government figures were released. |
