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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.68+1.2%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: James Calladine who wrote (36264)8/4/2000 2:41:48 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Thread,

Answer these questions:

1. What year will semi-equip peak earnings occur?

My answer is 2002.

2. What will AMAT earnings be for the year ending 10 '02?

My answer is $4.50.

3. When will the next peak price for AMAT occur?

My answer is 7 '01 at Semicon.

4. What will the forward PE on '02 earnings be?

My answer is 20.

5. What will the next peak price be?

My answer is $90.

6. What is prudent behavior in this environment?

My answer is:

a. Accumulate on weakness for an intermediate term trade;
b. Keep a high cash position because the potential for a longer cycle is balanced by the threat of a slower economy and a shorter cycle due to higher energy costs, interest rate hikes past and, possibly, future, and excessive speculation in technology stocks which doesn't reflect long term growth rates and which hasn't been wrung out yet.
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