freeus, TigerPaw's post regarding the use of margin should be etched in granite--margin is almost dysfunctional for those who adhere to Long Term Buy and Hold and a complete non-starter when the investor holds a bag with the likes of JDSU, QCOM, and CSCO inside.
I own all of the above-mentioned gals and am very long Alka Seltzer in consequence. Would I be a happier camper with, for example, the Q back at 200? Of course, but it was overvalued at that price then and would be today so my worry quotient would be on red-line. I agree that predicting a 'return' date is a fool's errand, but disagree that it's time to play Taps.
My response to 1999's amazing run was to sell 1/4 of my beloved Qualcomm (I swear it felt like selling your kids into slavery--damned tough decision), and use the proceeds to buy 'Old Economy' stocks that I think will benefit as they re-tool with all the gadgets that the 'New Economy' companies are creating. For example, I bought UPS and WFC. This lowered several things: my portfolio's PE and my blood pressure to cite two. As I am in my 50's, I did not think it prudent to own as much CSCO, JDSU, and QCOM as I did and reordered my portfolio to be more in line with my age. In other words, I think your "age factor" observation is quite appropriate but suggest that you might be overdoing it a touch.
There is the so-called 'rule of 100' which suggests that one subtract one's age from 100 and apportion between stocks and bonds, with the result that kids would have 90% in the market and geezers 10% or whatever. That's too formulaic for my taste, but goes in the general direction of your suggestions which, to repeat, have merit. I guarantee you I don't own the same mix of stocks that our kids (o.k., young adults) own. And yes, the next time the NAZ goes on a 1999 Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, I'll doubtless take more off the table and own more of those Little Brown Trucks delivering B-2-C merchandise from whatever e-commerce vendors are then extant. Hell, I may even go to, god forbid, a modest dosage of cash! As you point out, the end result of all this bandwidth is to acquire the wherewithal to live long and prosper.
But for those not on margin, we haven't been 'wiped out' by the nasty bear of 2000 and it certainly hasn't been a 'waste'. Jeez freeus, Wells Fargo may have been prudent but it ain't nowhere near as much fun: even for a dinosaur like myself I'm tempted to say 'booooooooooring' [though I did find the appearance of a "dividend"--remember those?--in my Schwab account to be a surprisingly positive event]. Don't sweat this down cycle. There will be an up to follow, and a down after that, and so on, till the cows come home. With all due respect to the New Economy, thus has it always been and . . . .
kind regards, mike doyle |
