Hi Mike,
Let me take your points slightly out of order, just to set my intentions straight.
"... as a here and now type investor, I'm just trying to figure out what is going to be generating revenues for the cableco equipment suppliers this year and into next. IMVHO, it's just a switch from analog to digital(all it's variations) for now."
During the near- to intermediate- term I'd be inclined to agree with you fully. I wasn't trying to sway anyone's investment position here. That's not the intent of this board, anyway. Instead, I was looking out over the horizon to see what was headed our way during the next wave.
"Also, if the current analog/digtal STB rollouts remains as STRONG as seemingly being reported, then we just added another multi-billion dollar legacy level that would have to be dealt with too."
Certainly, and that has never bothered the MSOs before, and I don't see it bothering them now, except for some of the relativele newer and enlightened ones.
By introducing an upstream content wholesaler who would supply multiple distribution SPs (MSOs and ILECs alike) with program and other forms of content, one does not necessarily compromise the STB and DSL models, respectively. What changes is the actual point of origin and the associated economics of presenting digitized content from the head end or central office, since they have offloaded the expense and administrative liabilities to a third party.
Economies of scale are thereby realized that could extend into an all IP (or ATM supporting IP, eventually) framework, but the first iteration could be entirely consistent with today's digital video schemes, only the point of origin changes, with new "pass-through" features introduced into the access providers' platforms for both CM and DSL.
Think of a high capacity link substitution, whereby instead of the video server being mounted in the head end, it's mounted in a remote SP location (e.g., the server farm that Blockbuster <or its outsourced provider> is using.
The MSOs are already doing this, to a certain extent, by aggregating a dozen or more head ends within a locale or region into a cluster, with primary content distribution to all of them (along with other administrative tasks) being supported by an upstream master node.
"And one practical reason against it-- The cost of a STB with a built-in DOCSIS cable modem is quite prohibitive at this point in time..."
Not sure where you're coming from with that one, since I didn't state that a cable modem should be incorporated in the STB. Perhaps you are referring to my IP suggestion? I think that this is already planned under the DOCSIS regimen, if I'm not mistaken, but not necessarily as a substitute for the CM. Maybe someone else can expand on IP to the STB. If I'm not mistaken it's to support a kind of intranet-based content delivery, a la @Home's private IP backbone at some point, although other MSOs are free to use this model too.
You mention the possibility of dual modems, one for STB and one for Internet access. I think that this is what we are going to see. The IP capabilities of the STB appear to be limited in scope, from what I have read (although I may have misinterpreted the intent) to the "intranet" venue, while the CM does the "Internet." Corrections on that last point are welcome. |
