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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.29+1.9%9:48 AM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36268)8/4/2000 7:45:05 PM
From: J Bertrand  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Cary,

You're logic is good. You may be right about next year's
peak. I believe investors can do well with intermediate trades and long term holds. AMAT has a long long way to
go.

I say that AMAT will be at $115 by December for the following reasons:

1. Presidential Election will create positive atmosphere.
2. Done with Fed hikes until next year.
3. Summer doldrums are over.
4. Lots of cash on sideline.
5. AMAT has a long way to go. New evidence will come
to light on this.
6. Book to bill will level off or rise slightly.
7. AMAT is a bargain right being over 40% off its highs.

Remember, AMAT and all the rest of the Semi's began to
see the upswing of orders in late October/November of
1998. The Semi's sat around last Spring, Summer and
early Fall of 1999 before they took off late Fall of 1999 and early Winter of 2000. The cycle has only been 1.5 years
at this point.

Keep up the good dialogue.

Jeff Bertrand
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