VMII mentioned in broadcast today:
agoracom.com
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Subject: ** Don Wolanchuk Interview 8/4/00 **
From: MazChgo
Date: Friday, August 04, 2000
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Don Wolanchuk's (Timer Digest's 1999 Market Timer, Gold Timer & Long-term Timer of the Year ) interview on today's The Stock Market Observer, a local television stock show in Chicago that he speaks on every Friday at 2:15pm CDT. ( DW= Don Wolanchuk and LM= host Linda Marshall)
LM: And we welcome Don Wolanchuk of the Wolanchuk Report. Hello there Don.
DW: Hey, how you doing?
LM: Do you feel any more comfortable with the market activity this week then you did last?
DW: Well, I'm always comfortable with market activity. But sometimes the Pinheads in this world, they'll make it a little tough on you. ( LM: LOL ) But I'm in the Steve & Nancy crowd that keeps me comfortable with what we got. ( LM: LOL ) And the fear levels are nice and fat in here and nobody believes anything. Very few Bulls around these days.
LM: Well alright; here we are at the 3100 level on the Nasdaq, are we going to go much below that do you think?
DW: I think we've seen the lows back there when we hit the 3000 level. And the wall of worry that this market's been climbing is fantastic. I understand you're on WEBFM now.
LM: Yes we are.
DW: I wanted to announce that. WebFM.com.
LM: Yes that's correct.
DW: So anybody can punch that in. Is this a live feed or what is this?
LM: Well we're not on right now, you and I, but our Web component is on. So we have the TV component and we have the Web component.
DW: So WebFM is like a different program.
LM: Yes it is.
DW: So we want to explain that.
LM: Meanwhile, explain to me where we're going with this market.
DW: Well, we've been going straight sideways for the last 12 months. And when we come out of this, it's going to be huge. Because the wave structure is winding down into what technicians like to refer to as a contracting triangle or a coil formation. And the tighter it gets wound, the bigger the explosion when it unwinds. It unwinds rather abruptly. We saw the same occurence in August 1982. So under these conditions a big move is coming. The end result should be up, but sometimes the initial thrust out of a triangle is down. We have to monitor the technical picture to come to a conclusion as to how to bet on it before it happens.
LM: If we got to that initial move down, how much could that shakeout the market?
DW: I'll tell you, everybody has down on their brain and I look for reasons to always look up. A lot of people missed this Bull Market in the last 15 years and we're looking for much higher prices in the years ahead. And one of these days you're going to wake up and the markets going to leave you behind if you're not in it.
LM: How much of the loyalty though, do you feel has been taken out of the investors in terms of the tech sector?
DW: Well, alot. So that's really healthy for the market because that's what starts big rallys.You get everybody disgusted, blasted out and margin called out of the business and so the market gets cleaned up. We saw lots of cleanups in 1998, 1994, 1990, 1987. And the opportunity, if we have to keep repeating them, are out there in spades.
And some of these stocks that came down in recent declines and got corrected recently are on their way up. Even some of the new one's we put in our portfolio like: Image Ware (IW); Voice Mobility (VMII), it appears ready to get their listing. And Tech Digital made an announcement. E-Phone (EPHO) made an important announcement. So all these little companies that are start-ups have continued to show signs of getting with the program. And so this is where we place our bets before the world falls in love with them.
Now, we are seeing stocks like Valence Technology (VLNC), that nobody paid any attention to, getting a lot of following. CIBC just came out with a big report; we're looking for $50. You're getting all these Johnny Come Lately's and these institutional types coming in, of course, at higher prices. So stocks like WaveRider (WAVC), that haven't got a big institutional following yet, is the stock you want to be in to take advantage of the coming big moves up.
LM: Valence (VLNC) is trading where right now?
DW: Valence (VLNC) is trading around $15. Of course we started talking about that way down there around $1, $2 or the $3 zone. But a lot of people still hate it and that's what we like.
LM: What criteria do you use Don for choosing stocks?
DW: You have to look at the big picture first and then try and fit in your picks with the big picture of the world economy. If you think the world economy is going to go nuts on the upside because you got zillions of new consumers on-line with China and Russia and of course with all this electronic gadgetry. And batteries of course are going to power this. So whose got the next generation battery technology? Well a company like Valence (VLNC).
And a lot of these countries they don't have the wherewithall to take advantage of telecommunications. So we look at wireless internet access company WaveRider (WAVC). That's how we pick these things. And we get them as cheap as possible cause we know that with start-up companies the price goes up in fits & starts.
And those who look at the earnings and things like that are usually left behind because they're not forward looking, they're backward looking. So as long as you're forward looking through all of this, you're going to make a lot of money. And those of course that look backward and look for reasons not to be in a stock, well you always find that. If you want a reason to stay out of a stock there are millions of reasons to stay out. That's why only the minority make money in the stock market.
LM: Don we look forward to talking to you next Friday. Thanks so much.
DW: You have a nice weekend.
LM: You too. Don Wolanchuk of the Wolanchuk Report. |
