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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 226.05

+1.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36278)	8/4/2000 9:12:41 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Cary, I believe little is known about when the peak will be and what total spending we will see. Using current projections for front-end equipment of 61B in '02 and assuming AMAT only their net maintain of 21%, but does not grow net margins, we can get the following EPS. This also assumes 810 Million shares outstanding. geocities.com If AMAT maintains their approximately 33% share of the front-end market, '02 EPS comes out to $5.24. Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 40%, we get '02 EPS of $6.34.(Revs of $24B!) Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 50% as some execs said was their goal, '02 EPS turns out to be $7.93. These are VERY simplistic guesstimates, but doing them shows your EPS estimate is close to the low end. Are you assuming they will not increase market share as they hope? If so, what are your reasons? TIA, Brian

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