Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 230.11

-3.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: John Cuthbertson who wrote (8500)	8/5/2000 9:29:31 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 10921

John, you may be right, but during this earning season, it seems that such pronouncements do not help. Look at CYMI, a great quarter by any measure, and the stock is 30% below the the $52 it reached after the earnings announcement. I think that the problem is not that the "cycle" is over, the problem is that we have reached a peak in the growth rate and the market historicaly punishes the stock at peaks in growth rate, when the anticipation of slower growth rate in the future will be followed with actual decline in shipments. It is a classical case of "when the FA and TA do not jive, believe the FA. When leading companies break the May lows (AMAT, LRCX and KLIC for example), IMHO, it means that the peak for the cycle (in stock prices) has been reached for this cycle (but I said that last May when AMAT broke through the $78/$80 area as well). I still expect a very strong rally in the sector soon (maybe after AMAT announces its result and the market brings it down after that to a new low), but I do not expect to see in the next 12 months prices above this year's highs. Zeev

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