el,
I looked back on the data I had on CSCO, dating back to calendar year 1996. Using the estimates I have from Zack's, CSCO had never missed earnings estimates. On the other hand, CSCO had never beaten estimates by more than 3 cents.
Revenue growth, since the last qtr of 1998, had exceeded 40%. In fact, they had an impressive string of accelerated revenue growth of 40%, 44%, 48%, 49% and 55%, ending with a quarterly revenue of $4.92 billion the March qtr.
The law of gravity dictates that CSCO cannot maintain this level of growth indefinitely. When, not if, CSCO's growth rate stabilizes, the possibility of a soft landing is almost nil. While it may not be this coming Wed but I sure hate to be long techs when the day CSCO comes tumbling back to earth. Then again, next wednesday may be just as likely as any other day.
Ramsey |
