JDSU: I believe the the physical build out of the long haul portion of the New Public Network , (which is where the JDSU tornado has been actively turning), is primed for a breather.
Instead of the long haul, I think carriers will begin to be focused on the edge of the network (where the long haul meets the local loop) .
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JDSU does indeed operate in this portion of the infrastructure, but I believe the new-new (!) tornado will be companies exclusively providing switches and software for the edge of the network.
Now, please pay attention, because we are going to a new filing cabinet.....
Basically,in the telcom space, I think the tornado is moving UP the OSI model. We just 'did' the OSI 1 layer and are now moving up to layer 2 and 3 , where the switches/software are at the edge of the long haul.
I propose that there is a parallel to be drawn on the movement of tornadoes through major discontinuous innovations.
Just for fun, let's compare the tornado patterns thru the PC evolution with the New Public Network evolution..
In both cases, the value chain starts at the bottom and the mini-tornadoes eventually move UP the value chain.
For the PC tornado, the bottom of the value chain was electricity, followed by semiconductors, then hardware, then systems software, followed by application software. This is described graphically in THE BOOK on page 69 and is referred to as "Layers of Technology". The idea is that the lower you are in the layered model, the better chance you have at being a gorilla with an enabling technology.
In the same fashion, I propose that the telecom tornados will move UP the layers of the OSI model. The OSI reference model is a series of 7 layers --essentially all equipment and software in the telecom/networking space can be assigned to a specific layer .
Sooo, the bottom of the value chain is the OSI layer 1--the fibre and the physical layer medium . I propose that this is comparable to where 'electricity' was in the PC evolution.
That's what we are on now.
And what comes after 1? :-). Perhaps the Next-New-New tornado takes a rip thru layer 2 of OSI, which would include the switches/software/storage at the edge of the long haul.
Anybody else with me on this?
XXX
a_dumb_blonde |
