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To: Boplicity who wrote (3368)	8/6/2000 10:09:30 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 13572

I have been reading this book on "q", which is a ratio of market price to "value". Guys who wrote it (Smithers) are ultra-bears. They are almost comical, but still, it's really depressing me. Weird: I feel like aliens are beaming me this message: "SELL EVERYTHING!!!!!!" It must be admitted that tech stocks are ridiculously overvalued and rely on the Greater Fool theory for continued appreciation. CSCO is the poster child for this. Growing at 30% and trading at 100+ next year's earnings. This of course does not even take into account the implied EPS dilution of option compensation. Doing so would probably require a writedown equal to the next five years' earnings. All tech is like this. That is the bear's argument. The bull's argument is: SO WHAT? It has been like this for some time now (increasingly geometrically since 95). Question is: can it go on forever. My guess: probably not. Market is so volatile, it might not hurt to sit in cash for a year or two, to "reassess". There will always be new opportunities. BTW, Greg, you were right about NOK being a good short from 43ish. I am beginning to think QCOM could have another leg down.

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