T/A by Dr. Bob, posted 8/6/00...
Edited
>>> Subject: TA Update by Dr.Bob
From: "Robert Woo" <Drbob512@email.msn.com>
Date: Sun, Aug 6 2000 12:41:38 AM -0700
*****TA Update(Aug 4)*****
The markets rallied for most of the day, with the Nasdaq closing off their highs. The Dow closed near it’s highs, and is trading now at it’s 200 dma. The Nasdaq is below it’s 200 dma and 10 day EMA’s still. The a/d finished positive at 22/17 and up/down volume was 8/5 on overall volume of 1.44B shares, down from 1.83B on Thursday. Nasdaq TRIN was a mildly positive .85, while the NYSE TRIN was .80. The Nasdaq has made a lower high and lower low recently on the daily charts.
Nasdaq MACD improved slightly but is still negative, as is the rate of change, while the OBV, CCI, and Williams%R are neutral. The DMI (ADX) is still negative. Chaikin Money Flow recently turned negative and remains that way despite the rally. The weekly stochastic is 35% going sideways, daily 34% going up, hourly 81% going up, so it is trying to fight it’s way back up, but hasn’t done so with authority, at least as of yet. It needs to have improved strength soon, or will risk another downturn which would likely retest the 3521 area at least.
Long bond rate declined to 5.71%, as bonds rallied, giving the financial stocks a boost lately. The Dow weekly stochastic is 61% going up, daily 77% going up, hourly 99% going up, which describes the relative strength of the Dow and it’s positive momentum for now, as it held at the 10,500 support in late July, when it appeared it wouldn’t.
The August/September timeframe is considered unfavorable seasonality due to the history of low volume and corrections from July rallies historically. Currently there is a two-tier market whereby some blue chips are firm while technology stocks have been weak in the past few weeks and months.
The Nasdaq had a significant technical (bear market) rally from 3048 to 4280, and then filled the gap at 3582 on the reversal, and now is in a narrow trading range, with 3865 as possible resistance, with strong resistance at 3982 to 4000. If the Nasdaq breadth can improve to better than 3/2 or to 2/1 on rally days and volume to over 1.7B shares, for two days in a row, it may be able to rally towards 4000, but if it does not occur very soon (perhaps in the next two days), then a retest of 3521 at a minimum is likely, and a retest of 3227/3048 looms ominously…
The Nasdaq may be forming a broad base from mostly the low to high 3000’s during the late March to September timeframe, from which the new bull market should reappear, to culminate in new all-time highs in January, 2001, as the New Paradigm, New Economy, and favorable seasonality for money flow, kick in again, as they have the past three years.
Dr.Bob’s commentaries are for the purpose of teaching technical analysis, and should NOT be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks, bonds, options or futures. Information is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Always do your own research before investing or trading.
For those who requested to be added to my email list weeks ago and never received them, I now just found some hidden messages, so please accept my apology. And I am still open to accepting requests, from your friends, to be added.
An announcement is imminent regarding my move to another site for my TA Updates and message board. Fee-based TA Training will be offered in a few months, and will include an option for one-on-one training.
For those using AOL for their ISP, Stocktimers meetings continue Sunday nights 5-6:30 pm PST, but we have been filling up so fast that we have to go to a regular room, so the best way to find us is to Instant Message me at 5pm or soon afterwards, as we are filling up the regular rooms as well.
Voice Chat is still meeting immediately afterwards, 6:30-7:30 pm PST, but we are looking for another site that has more capacity and is easy to install. If you have any ideas, let me know . <<< |
