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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: donald sew who wrote (26865)8/6/2000 2:17:29 PM
From: dli  Read Replies (1) of 42787
 
Donald,

excellent thoughts on the semiconductor sector. It is interesting to note that those "high-end semis" that Franz mentioned (BRCM, PMCS, AMCC) have remained rather unaffected by the recent selloff in the semiconductor sector despite being among those that have run up the most this year and sporting astronomical PE ratios. Personally, I think that this is mainly due to their affiliation with the fiber optics sector which is currently in favor on the street. As soon as fears about the sustainability of accelerating growth in the fiber optics sector will surface those stocks are sure to get whacked hard. A good example is the recent trashing of the specialized wireless semis (RFMD, ANAD, TQNT etc.) after people started worrying about potentially slowing growth in handset sales.

IMO the notion of those high-end semis not being subject to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry is another one of those new paradigm illusions. Once it becomse apparent that bandwidth needs won't grow exponentially forever this sector will become just as cyclical as the rest of the semis.

As for the SOX, it is dominated by old line semis and therefore does not properly reflect the whole industry.

Dave
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