Peter,
Regarding Biogen... I sold my holdings a few months ago at a rediculously overvalued price. I did so because:
1. The two most exciting compounds (to me) in the clinic - VLA4 and Antova - both were yanked from trials.
2. CVT124 launch seems to have fallen back a couple of years to a possible 2004/5 launch.
3. Amevive looks great, buy psoraiasis market is tough and there are lots of treatments in pipelines all over biopharm. Plus, am unsure what to expect from sales curve: this is not a drug like Avonex that will be taken every week by loyal patients.
4. The company is not putting its money to use (so far) - no inlicensing, no company purchases. It was hinted recently that something might be imminent, but that has been hinted at for 3 years now.
5. Avonex is only the best of a poor lot of treatments for MS. Like psoraiasis, MS has lots of companies searching for a better treatment (including Biogen).
6. I recall the company saying during a conference call over a year ago, that Biogen would submit a new IND by the end of last year. It never materialized.
The company has a good balance sheet, good physical plant and wonderful people. Hopefully, their sails will fill again, but now I think they are becalmed and I don't think the company is a value at 30X earnings, a slowing growth rate, a shrinking pipeline, and one product driving revenue and growth.
All IMO, H |
