Neo, new poll just out...Bush Up 54% to 37% Over Gore After GOP Convention Public overwhelmingly thinks Bush will win in November
by Frank Newport
gallup.com
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush, gaining momentum during an almost two-week time span in which his choice of Dick Cheney as vice president and the Republican National Convention dominated news coverage, has moved ahead of Democrat Al Gore among likely voters by a 17-point margin. Not only has Bush’s position on the ballot strengthened, but an overwhelming 70% of Americans now say it is likely that Bush, not Gore, will win the election in November. Al Gore’s favorable ratings among the U.S. public are now 15 points lower than Bush’s. At the same time, Republican vice presidential nominee Dick Cheney’s image has become more unfavorable over the course of the past week, and the overall impact of the convention as reported by voters is lower on several measures than the impact of other conventions in previous years, particularly the 1992 Democratic convention at which Bill Clinton and Al Gore received their party’s nomination.
Bush Bounces Up
George W. Bush’s current 17-point margin over Al Gore, 54% to 37%, is an expansion of the 11-point lead Bush held in the week leading up to the GOP convention in Philadelphia. (Green Party nominee Ralph Nader receives 4% of the vote, and possible Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan receives 1%, roughly where both candidates have been in recent polls). Bush has been ahead of Gore in every poll conducted by Gallup over the last two years, and Bush’s lead has been in double digits at several times last year and earlier this year. Thus, in the broadest sense, the GOP convention had the effect of solidifying Bush’s leadership position in this race, rather than totally changing the race’s structure.
Most candidates get at least some "bounce" out of their convention, so Bush’s gain is in line with historical expectations -- just as is the expectation that Gore will gain as a result of the Democratic convention beginning August 14 in Los Angeles. But Gore needs a more major structural change in voter sentiment as he announces his vice presidential nominee and goes through the four days of the Los Angeles convention -- if the Democratic ticket is to emerge, going into Labor Day, in the rough parity position that would signal a highly competitive race through September and October.
It is interesting to note that Democrat Michael Dukakis had a 54% to 37% lead over George Bush the elder immediately after the Democratic convention in the summer of 1988 -- only to have his lead evaporate after the Republican convention that followed. Bush, of course, went on to victory in November of that year, suggesting that it is -- in theory, at least -- possible that the current vice president, Al Gore, can come from behind and eventually beat George W. Bush in this year’s election.
Bush Gains on Favorable Rating, and Voters Increasingly See Him as a Winner
The convention had the impact of increasing Bush’s positioning against Gore on several measures in addition to the basic ballot:
Bush’s "favorable" rating is now at 67%, up slightly from his pre-convention 63%. At the same time, Al Gore’s favorable rating is now only 52%, tied for the lowest rating he has received since December of 1997, when he received a 50% favorable rating. In the pre-convention poll, Gore’s favorable rating was 56%. The vice president’s unfavorable rating went up from 38% to 42% during the convention week.
Perhaps one of the most significant positives for Bush at this point in the race is the perception on the part of the American public that he has momentum and that he is a winner: |
