Hi tp,
Aw, why worry? This thing is a moon shot, that's what I hear. :)
Warning: Certified AVCI bulls may want to stop here, the balance of this is not what you want to hear.....
I do seem to recall that CIEN really got its 'thang' in a wringer while going through the same AT&T field test grinder. And that time LuLU won the DWDM battle, (well fancy that, the good ol' boy team won,) and this time, by golly I'm wondering if the competition may getting stalled long enough for LuLU to resolve the disarray in its Nexabit unit. Not to be thinking like an old school telco bureaucrat or anything. No, wouldn't want to think about the politics of a situation like this one. OTOH, doesn't T have a policy in place preventing CTOs and suchlike from accepting 'friends and family' shares from its vendors? Seems to me, this could make the AVCI 'pitch' a lot less convincing. Seems like I've read that somewhere. Sort of in contradistinction to the policy at WCG.....
Well, Ciena survived its eventual dismissal by T because it really had a good product and good vision. AVCI can probably do just fine with the next gen networkers, even if T eventually ends the dance. I'm just not counting any revenue potential from T at this point. OTOH, history could repeat itself, and once an announcement comes out of T that AVCI is out, we could very easily see some monumental price dislocations. After all, this pup is priced for perfection on nothing but hope and dreams and not on hard cold business facts.
The Random Musings Dept. is now closed.
JMHO, Ray |
