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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 91.18-4.3%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: blake_paterson who wrote (49172)8/7/2000 11:35:24 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (3) of 93625
 
Hi blake paterson; The golden constant of Micron's production of RDRAM is "two quarters".

As in "Micron will begin production of RDRAM two quarters from now," which they've been saying for almost a year.

My guess is that they will eventually pump some chips out. They've got a different package which should bring some of the RDRAM costs down, why aren't they shipping it? Maybe they are waiting to see how the royalty situation on DDR resolves itself before they are willing to give any royalties to Rambus on RDRAM.

Rambus is in a bit of a "caught the lion by the tail" position with regard to DDR royalties. If they negotiate a deal with the (big) memory houses that gives them much less than 1% royalties on DDR, they risk angering their shareholders, who've had the moon promised (or at least implied) to them. On the other hand, if they insist on the big royalties they give plenty of reason for the big memory houses to contest the patents or go for the FTC.

Because of this problem, I predict that Rambus will have to sue for royalties from Micron, Samsung, Infineon, and Hyundai. (In other words, I think it is unlikely that these companies will sign lucrative royalty agreements without a fight.) After the stuff gets in the legal system, God only knows what will happen to it.

-- Carl
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