Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 88.38

-3.1%

3:22 PM EST

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To: NightOwl who wrote (49181)	8/8/2000 5:04:34 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Hi NightOwl; My natural tendency is to look only at the engineering side of these things, but I have to agree with most of what you've said. There is another factor here, and that Rambus really isn't an entity. Instead, it is an organization controlled by a relatively small group of people, people who's interests may differ considerably from that of the shareholders. My understanding of the way wealth works is that it is much better to have a 100% chance of $1 million than a 50% chance of $2 million. People prefer the sure thing. Another way of looking at is to say that people value their first million dollars more than the increase in value of their second million over their first. Given this, management at Rambus might be inclined to cut a deal that avoids having to take chances with a lawsuit. On the other hand, they have been selling shares into the market at a pretty steady clip this year: biz.yahoo.com One of the things that is inspiring the faithful to deny the death of RDRAM is that Rambus management told them that RDRAM is the memory of the future. Even though management has also (all but) told them that the company will collect high royalties on DDR, still longs insist on the thriving of RDRAM. But if management was wrong about RDRAM's survival, could it be possible that management is also wrong about the safety of the patent situation with respect to DDR and/or SDRAM? The other thing that is just plain bothering me is the weakness of the OKI and Hitachi deals. It just doesn't smell like results negotiated from a position of great strength. -- Carl

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