SanDisk is technically weak. You couldn't get it up with a crane.
__________________________________________________________________________________
To Limtex...
I look at the short volume and wonder why anyone would dare to short this stock now down more than $110 from its high and with stellar earnings reports for the last 3 quarters running. I have never followed short volume before, but I don't recall it being a major factor. The increase in short volume is puzzling. We are in a trading channel (or should I say "gutter") now and have been for some time. Also, the SEG selling has weakened the technicals for SNDK and "The Street" seems to be dominated by techncial jockeys executing short term plays while we wallow in this gutter. This type of churning action continues to test the patience of longer term investors.
__________________________________________________________________________________
To Huey...
I listened to the FLSH conference call (1-800-756-6239) which was supervised by Solomon Smith Barney. Funny how SSB downgrades the tech sector, particularly the flash segment, but then props the FLSH management up like cardboard mannequins and has them spout off about how rosy things are in regarding the prospects of flash memory devices.
A few comments made during the conference call were made regarding ATA Disk Chip. This included the fact that FLSH management felt SSTI's press releases were misleading with regard to the disclosure of flash technology used in the product. In particular he pointed out that "commodity flash" (Damn, I hate that term) would be used for storage, not SuperFlash. They also referred to ADC as basically a CompactFlash card sporting a rather simplistic controller which has been morphed into an embedded product. The trumpeting of ATA/IDE interfaces was felt to be a bit overdone in as much as FLSH's use of software in their Millenium DOC device logic affords superior performance and enhances interaction with the host processor. The FLSH CEO went further to say that most standard circuit boards have connectors for FLSH's DOC that are incompatible with ADC and that no ADC design-ins have been anounced.
As a SNDK investor I got a mixed message. First, the software that FLSH invented to help manage the flash storage apparently enhances the ATA/IDE interface and is superior to CompactFlash and its variants with respect to performance and sophistication. It lead me to believe that if the ATA/IDE interface goes away that SanDisk has little competitive edge. It also suggests that FLSH has somehow designed around SanDisk's controller technology (with its emphasis on wired logic circuits) with its proprietary software file system (with an emphasis on software enhanced logic).
The positive news was that Toshiba is doing the manufacture of NAND for FLSH. SanDisk may get a piece of the action once FlashVision is up and running. At the very least it would leave less flash memory available for eventual assembly into competing flash cards. However, the continued referrals to ultra-high density flash as a "commodity" item is disconcerting. I care to refer to its as "leading-edge ultra-high density flash memory".
__________________________________________________________________________________
To Binx...
The Hitachi announcement today is one in a series that have serious implications for SanDisk investors.
MMC is the greatest threat to CompactFlash.
First, it demonstrates that there is a mounting effort to migrate away from CompactFlash. Despite my initial interests in the flexibility of the CF design (and its cross-platform compatibility) it is now clear the CF will likely only be useful in portable computing devices (where the CF+ modules are required) and in digital cameras. The failure of Microsoft's Windows CE platform to gain significant market share has injured CompactFlash's status. Alternative designs without CF (Palm Computing and Handspring being the best examples) have hampered CF's popularity significantly. Even more concerning is the fact that most of the other mega-markets (MP3,for example) appear to be migrating away from CF because of its size.
Further, there has been a disturbing trend toward leaving CF slots off of handheld devices in favor of modular add-on devices that are proprietary in nature. This includes the Handspring platform and its proprietary modules, the recent Rio! player with proprietary "backpack" modules, and any upcoming Memory Stick add-on modules which are reportedly in the making.
Most of all consumers suffer by the lack of a single standard, but CompactFlash does remain a dominant player here.
Here is the disturbing paragraph...
This very small, lightweight, 64-MByte module stores enough digital data for a full hour or more of recording and playback in voice recorders and portable music players such as MP3 players. The economical high-capacity Flash card also allows increased image storage in high-resolution digital cameras, longer data acquisition times in remote monitoring equipment, larger reference maps in GPS navigation systems, bigger data files in palm-size PCs, and more sophisticated programs in game machines and toys.
Second, Hitachi has upped the ante on MMC. SanDisk has been very slow in attaining the 64 MB sweet spot (in large scale production quantities) mostly due to engineering problems related to stacking of chips. Hitachi is now rubbing SanDisk's face in this failure.
Hitachi achieved the Flash card's breakthrough density and high performance using its 256-Mbit AND-type Flash memory chips, built with Multi-Level Cell technology in a proven 0.25-um process, and a cell-based IC (ASIC) control device based on a 32-bit SuperH(R) RISC microprocessor core. An advanced stacking technology is used to assemble the semiconductor chips inside the MMC form factor.
Also, the data transfer rates seem to be superior to SanDisk's.
...the HB288064MM1 64-MByte MMC device offers fast read and write speeds that enhance product/system performance. Read speed is 14 Mb/s and write speed is 3 Mb/s, which allows a high-speed data transfer path to PCs, handheld devices and the Internet.
Although Hitachi will be a vital second source in promoting the MMC standard, it may also beat SanDisk to the punch if it continues to accelerate and outpace SanDisk's best effort. Having said that, it is also clear that many package assemblers will fall by the wayside during the transition from CF to MMC leaving the MMC market to be split between SNDK and Hitachi.
I am concerned by the fact that no licensure agreements relating to the MMC standard have been announced by SanDisk. The lack of such agreements could seriously cripple SanDisk profitability in the future. If such agreements do exist, SanDisk has done precious little in helping the investment community understand its IP position.
Third, the Hitachi press release makes no mention of any of SanDisk's proprietary technology that is incorporated in MMC. You would almost guess that Hitachi was the inventor. In addition, Hitachi is transitioning to 512 Mbit already and they have a SDMI compliant device in the works that will compete with SDMC.
Hitachi is enthusiastic about the MultiMediaCard standard because of the many benefits MMC devices can provide. In the future we plan to produce a 128-Mbyte MMC device using the 512-Mbit Flash memory chips we are now developing. We also expect to offer large-capacity Secure MultiMediaCards that provide reliable content protection.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Ausdauer
SanDisk...the ugly duckling with the feeble quack. |
