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Non-Tech : CABOT Sinkhole (PRST, ZOLT, IOMG...) How deep?

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To: NEIL MACK who wrote (14)6/22/1996 1:12:00 PM
From: Scott Maxwell   of 90
 
Yow, Neil, what a post!

I sympathize with your plight -- I've had the same guilt pangs when people have listened to me about investment or other matters and gone on to act on my advice without the broader considerations and the background knowledge necessary to do so successfully. You sound like you've been in sales, where being upbeat is a prerequisite for success, and it probably affects your commentary in that you don't leaven it with cautions and worst-case scenarios. I now make a point of presenting worst-case scenarios to anyone I'm talking to so that they will be aware of the risk they are taking for that possible reward; this tends to keep them cool when bad news or setbacks occur which don't affect the basic positive scenario.

You've invested so much of yourself in the company that you have a hard time stepping back to look at the possible negatives. Happens to everyone. It's certainly possible that all the positive scenarios for Presstek will pan out, but one must evaluate the stock price on the probabilities for future earnings, which _when all negative possibilities are considered_ couldn't come close to justifying 200. But good performance of a stock tends to cast a cloud of rosy thinking over anyone who's financially and emotionally invested in a company, until the great overshoot collapses.

After all, tulips are very fine flowers, and some rare varieties are collector's items, with lots of demand from the very wealthy.... <g>
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