This message is a bit of a test (first post), and a thank-you note as well. I've been lurking this thread for about five years, and my ROI is very much better for it. <g> A threader with whom I've traded emails finally gave me the opportunity to join SI, for which I'm very grateful.
My hat's off to the consistent "gorillas" here - Tito (LEAPS), Gottfried (charts and sanity checker), BK (newshound), Katherine (technical detail), and all the others I *can't* remember immediately. I think it's become clear over time that this thread out-analyzes the supposed professionals. The current situation is a case in point.
I land firmly on the bullish side at the moment - it's nearly impossible to justify logically the recent decline in the face of advancing business. However, since the market is an aggregate of emotional animals, we're here nonetheless. Eventually, the cognitive dissonance here will resolve itself.
The good news (to me, at least) is that opinions change faster than fundamentals. Thus, AMAT may rise, supported by strong earnings tomorrow, as fast as it fell. I see *no change* in the strong business outlook - for those willing to do the homework to understand this company's products and market. This is the place to find those details.
Right now, I'm working under the assumption that many of the so-called professionals have neither the time nor inclination to dig quite so deep. They seem to blindly react to the market action instead of news. When you also figure that their information *filters* (reporters) seem to care even less, I see a rare opportunity to buck the herd and pay attention to facts, not innuendo and misinformation. We may not see a major bounce (or drop) Thursday, but this industry has a long way to go before the legendary "end of the cycle."
More later. Thanks for being here. |
